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INTRODUCTION - Trends

Trends

In the preceding section, we saw how support and resistance levels can be penetrated by a change in investor expectations (which results in shifts of the supply/demand lines). This type of a change is often abrupt and "news based."

In this section, we'll review "trends." A trend represents a consistent change in prices (i.e., a change in investor expectations). Trends differ from support/resistance levels in that trends represent change, whereas support/resistance levels represent barriers to change.

As shown in Figure 19, a rising trend is defined by successively higher low-prices. A rising trend can be thought of as a rising support level--the bulls are in control and are pushing prices higher.

Figure 19


Figure 20 shows a falling trend. A falling trend is defined by successively lower high-prices. A falling trend can be thought of as a falling resistance level--the bears are in control and are pushing prices lower.

Figure 20


Just as prices penetrate support and resistance levels when expectations change, prices can penetrate rising and falling trendlines. Figure 21 shows the penetration of Merck's falling trendline as investors no longer expected lower prices.

Note in Figure 21 how volume increased when the trendline was penetrated. This is an important confirmation that the previous trend is no longer intact.

Figure 21


As with support and resistance levels, it is common to have traders' remorse following the penetration of a trendline. This is illustrated in Figure 22.

Figure 22


Again, volume is the key to determining the significance of the penetration of a trend. In the above example, volume increased when the trend was penetrated, and was weak as the bulls tried to move prices back above the trendline.

 


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 Preface
Preface
Introduction
Acknowledgments
Terminology
To Learn More


 Content
Technical Analysis
Price Fields
Charts
Support & Resistance
Trends
Moving Averages
Indicators
Market Indicators
Line Studies
Periodicity
The Time Element
Conclusion

 Reference
 Reference
 Absolute Breadth Index
 Accumulation/Distribution
 Accumulation Swing Index
 Advance/Decline Line
 Advance/Decline Ratio
 Advancing-Declining Issues
 Advancing, Declining,
   Unchanged Volume

 Andrews' Pitchfork
 Arms Index
 Average True Range
 Bollinger Bands
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 Bull/Bear Ratio
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 Commodity Selection Index
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 Directional Movement
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 Ease of Movement
 Efficient Market Theory
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 Fibonacci Studies
 Four Percent Model
 Fourier Transform
 Fundamental Analysis
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 Interest Rates
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 McClellan Oscillator
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 New Highs-Lows Cumulative
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 Vertical Horizontal Filter
 Volatility, Chaikin's
 Volume
 Volume Oscillator
 Volume Rate-of-Change
 Weighted Close
 Williams' Accumulation/Distribution
 Williams' %R
 Zig Zag

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