Minervini Trend Template on Canadian Stocks: A 25-Year TSX Backtest

Mark Minervini's Trend Template is one of the most popular stock filters: eight rules that keep only stocks in a strong Stage 2 uptrend. Most of what's written about it uses US stocks. We wanted to know how it does on the Toronto Stock Exchange, so we ran it through 25 years of TSX data with MarketInOut's strategy backtester.

The short answer: the entry rules work, but the exit decides everything. With a quick exit, the template trailed a simple TSX index fund. With a patient exit, it beat the fund by about 1.3 percentage points a year.

The results

Growth of C$100,000 from January 2001 to October 2026, year-end values:

All runs: TSX stocks priced above C$5 with at least C$5 million in average daily trading value, up to 20 positions of 5% of capital each, 0.1% commission per trade and a C$0.02 spread. Prices are adjusted for dividends and splits, and delisted stocks are included.

What we learned

1. The exit mattered more than the entry

Every strategy in the table bought the same stocks: the ones passing the Trend Template. Only the exit changed, and annual returns ranged from 5.8% to 9.6%. Selling as soon as a stock closed below its 50-day average produced almost 5,000 trades held for about three weeks each. Most were small losses: only 29% of trades made money. Waiting for a close below the 200-day average cut the number of trades by 80%, raised the share of winners to 41% and let the best trades run for a year or more.

2. Tight stops hurt on the TSX

A 10% stop-loss lowered the return from 8.6% to 7.1% a year, and the drawdown was no smaller: 39% with the stop vs 36% without. Many TSX leaders are miners and energy producers, which often swing 10% within a normal uptrend, so a tight stop shakes you out of trades that would have worked.

3. A market filter made the ride smoother, not more profitable

Buying only when the TSX itself was above its 200-day average reduced the worst drawdown from 39% to 34%. It also kept the strategy out of many early rallies, and the annual return fell to 5.8%.

4. Big drawdowns still happen

Even the best version lost 25% in 2008 and 18% in both 2018 and 2022. The Trend Template keeps you in strong stocks, but strong stocks fall together in a bear market. Plan your position sizes for a 35–40% drawdown.

5. One strong year is not the whole story

The 200-day exit returned 72% in 2025, mostly from gold miners. Without 2025 and 2026, it still returned 8.3% a year from 2001 to 2024, against 7.2% for the index fund.

What this test is and isn't

• It tests the Trend Template as an entry signal. Minervini uses the template as a watchlist filter and buys only on specific setups, such as a volatility contraction pattern (VCP), with tight risk control. His full method is not tested here.
• Signals and fills both use closing prices, so each trade assumes you could buy or sell at the day's close.
• When more stocks qualified than there were open positions, the strategy bought those with the highest one-year relative strength first.
• Past results don't guarantee future returns, and no test captures every real-world cost.

We also ran the same strategy on 14 stock universes in seven countries. See where the Minervini Trend Template works.

Run it yourself

Opening formula (TSX stocks passing the Trend Template, strongest first):

exch(tsx) and type(stock) and price > 5 and advol(21) > 5 and price > sma(50) and sma(50) > sma(150) and sma(150) > sma(200) and sma(200) > sma(200)@21 and price >= 1.25 * w52low and price >= 0.75 * w52high and rs(252) >= 70 and sortby(rs(252), desc)

Closing formula (the best exit in our test):

price cb sma(200)

Paste both into the Strategy Backtester, then try your own changes: another exit, a different stop, or the same rules on another market. To see which TSX stocks pass the template today, open the Trend Template screen for Canada, or narrow it to setups with the VCP screen.

Backtests run on MarketInOut data on October 20, 2026. XIU returns include reinvested distributions.