What Happens After a Stock Hits a 52-Week High? 25 Years of US, Canadian and UK Data

“Buy stocks making new highs” is one of the oldest rules in trend following. A stock at a 52-week high has no unhappy buyers above it, the argument goes, so it has room to run. But is a stock really more likely to keep rising after a new high than any other stock?

We checked with MarketInOut's backtester: every 52-week high, every all-time high and every 52-week low among S&P 500, S&P/TSX Composite and FTSE 100 members since 2001, and what each stock did over the next month, three months, six months and year. The answer depends a lot on the market.

The short version

• In Canada, new highs led to above-average returns. TSX Composite members gained 11.7% on average in the year after a 52-week high, against 10.3% for a member bought on any day.
• In the US and UK, they didn't. S&P 500 and FTSE 100 members did slightly worse than average after a new high.
• US stocks at a 52-week low did best of all, gaining 15.6% on average over the next year, against 11.6% for any day.
• All-time highs were no better than 52-week highs, and in the UK they were the weakest signal: 5.2% a year on, against 10.5% on average.

Average one-year return after each event

Full results

Average return after buying at the close on the day of the event, with the share of trades that were up after one year:

S&P 500 members (2001–2026)

S&P/TSX Composite members (2001–2026)

FTSE 100 members (2007–2026)

One month = 21 trading days, three months = 63, six months = 126, one year = 252. Prices are adjusted for dividends and splits, delisted stocks are included, and index membership is as of each date. No commissions.

Does it hold up in more recent years?

52-week lows cluster in crashes such as 2008–2009, which were followed by big rebounds. To check that the results aren't only about that period, we ran the same test from 2010. One-year average returns:

The pattern is the same. US stocks at 52-week lows still led, Canadian stocks at new highs still beat the average, and UK stocks at all-time highs still lagged.

What this means

New highs aren't a buy signal on their own

In two of three markets, buying any index member on a random day did about as well as buying one at a new high. A new high tells you the trend is up, not that the next year will be better than average. That's why trend-following methods such as the Minervini Trend Template add more conditions, such as relative strength and rising moving averages, and why even then the results vary a lot by market.

Canada rewards momentum more than the US and UK

The TSX is heavy in miners and energy producers, whose trends tend to last for months once commodity prices turn. That fits our TSX Trend Template backtest, where patient trend-following beat the index fund.

Large US stocks tend to bounce back

S&P 500 members at a 52-week low gained more on average than at any other time. Large companies that fall hard are often still sound businesses, and many recover. But this is an average: a 52-week low can also be the start of a long decline, and the average hides the stocks that kept falling.

Limits of this test

• These are averages across thousands of trades, not a trading strategy. No stops, no position sizing and no costs.
• Only large-cap index members are included. Small caps may behave very differently.
• Each stock is counted once per holding period: a stock that keeps making new highs while held isn't counted again until the period ends.
• Past results don't guarantee future returns.

Run it yourself

Opening formula, for S&P 500 members at a new 52-week closing high:

index(sp500) and nh_252

Use price new_low 252 for 52-week lows or new_athc for all-time highs. In the Strategy Backtester, leave the closing formula empty and set “Close position after” to 21, 63, 126 or 252 trading days.

To see today's lists, open the ready-made screens for 52-week highs, 52-week lows and all-time highs. Each one has tabs for Canada and the UK.

Backtests run on MarketInOut data on October 21, 2026.